More election polls! New updates

Because in my previous episode discussing the polls, I neglected to mention Cape Town. And how could I do such a thing? In the comments, I was dragged by people for not mentioning Cape Town. We haven't had amazing data for Cape Town up to this point, but right now we do have, after this new ENCA poll, more data. And I think we can start talking about what's happening there. And the big question, the big question for Cape Town, why Cape Town is important is: will the DA hang on to its outright majority? Will it hang on?

To more than 50% of the vote, or will it fall just below that 50%? Well, my average is in. And it's good news for Geordin Hill-Lewis. The average is saying DA is just about going to cling on to that spot: 51.2%. Like I say, margin of error, give it, we don't know. It's a nail biter, it's a cliffhanger. It could be 49%, it could be 52%. But right now, where the margin is, the average is

Pushing is just over that 50% mark. So that'll be a fascinating one to watch because some polls have had the DA below that 50%, some just above that 50%. ENCA mark data poll had them above 50. So right now, looks like DA may just by the skin of its teeth hold on to that outright majority. ANC at 20% in Cape Town actually surprises me. That's actually quite a high number for the ANC given where things are, and by far the second biggest party. So we've got them in at just around 20%. And then EFF at 7%.

Patriotic Alliance at six. And that'll be an interesting battle between the EFF and the PA. And then we've got smaller parties from 2% onwards. So interesting one there. Cape Town. Right now, my averages have the DA just above 50. That's all I can tell you, Cape Town people. And ANC coming in at second. So we don't quite know, but if I gun to my head, that's where things are looking right now. And that would mean Geordin Hill-Lewis.

Has a good election. New DA leader takes his party over the line in Cape Town. No need for coalitions. Of course, even if the DA falls at 48, 49, they can bring in one party and have quite a comfortable coalition. So the DA will continue to govern Cape Town, in my view. But it's just a question of whether it will govern outright or whether it will have to bring in a smaller coalition partner. But when you win Cape Town and you're the biggest party in Joburg, suddenly an electoral narrative starts to build about.