Coalitions: MAJOR shake-up in SA politics?

There will be exceptions in different places. But let's stick with the metros and let's go to probably the next most important and most uncertain, and that is Ethekwini. In Ethekwini, the MK Party is the biggest party with 38% of the vote. And the question there is: will MK Party be able to get over the line with a majority? Now, the reason why, again, this NEC resolution is important is it says the DA should be the last.

If the DA is the last resort in Etiguini, then that suggests that the ANC may be opening the door to working with MK Party. And as the biggest party in Etiguini, MK Party would then rise to become mayor in Eteguini. However, even if the ANC and the DA clubbed together to try and keep the MK Party out, because the MK Party would have been brought in in the Gauteng metros by ActionSA.

ActionSA may lend their support to MK Party in eThekwini. And that would mean that if the MK Party could do a deal with the IFP plus ActionSA in eThekwini, then they could also get over the line without the ANC or the DA. Now, eThekwini is fascinating because it's pretty much divided between north and south. In the north of KZN, the IFP is dominant. They have five municipalities that they govern out.

And there are 19 municipalities that the IFP is the biggest party in, where they require a coalition partner. It's almost the exact opposite in the south of KZN. The MK party has three municipalities that they govern outright, and there are 19 where the MK is the biggest party. So you could see a deal between the IFP and the MK where they could govern the entire province, and where the IFP is the biggest party, they would govern, but with the partnership of the MK, and vice versa, where the MK is the biggest party.