Coalitions: MAJOR shake-up in SA politics?

Left out other parties before, and so those who live by the sword die by the sword. Now, let us move on though to the national implications of this in the third part. Because in the first part, we looked at Gauteng, second part we looked at the other metros. So, now, thirdly, what could unfold nationally? Because if the DA is frozen out of Gauteng, could that mean that they decide to walk out of the GNU?

Now, the DA has taken a lot of punishment in the GNU. And despite the GNU's failures, despite many scandals, Madlanga Commission revelations, Palapala, even having one of their own fired by Cyril Ramaphosa Andrew Whitfield, who was fired as a deputy minister, the DA has nonetheless stayed loyal to the GNU. But the question is, how deep does that loyalty go?

Is the DA prepared to be loyal at any cost? The answer may well be yes, actually. When I look at the DA, it looks like they are really willing to stay in the GNU no matter what the ANC does. Interestingly, I don't believe that ActionSA has ambitions of going into the national government. I think they quite like where they are right now. Being outside the GNU has obviously been good for them electorally. It means they haven't had to expand.

Explain away things like Phala Phala. It means the national government's failures and the lack of economic growth is not their problem. And so I think we may be heading to a very interesting, paradoxical place, which is one of the scenarios I painted earlier in the week, which is that we may have the ANC in partnership with the DA at the national level, but in a completely different set of partnerships.

at the local level, where particularly in Gauteng, where the DA is already frozen out of the provincial government, the DA is not a part of that governing coalition. Now that leaves the EFF and MK and what they would want to do. I do think they would go into national government if the DA walked, but I'm not convinced the DA will walk. But if the DA does walk, then you may still have this GNU arrangement.

Without an ActionSA, because they don't necessarily want to go into national government, but with an EFF and/or an MK. And that would signal a fundamental realignment in our politics, because that would mean that the GNU era, as we know it, is out and a new coalition era is in, both nationally and locally. Now, the headache for the ANC is if the GNU walks away, the DA has really kept Cyril.