BN Daybreak: Roodt's mini budget verdict; WSM on small parties, Nov 4; Ian Cameron; eThewkwini

Garden Guana said South Africa has emerged from the fiscal wilderness. Economist Darvey Ruert agrees we've turned a corner, but told Alec Hogg it's for the wrong reasons. Check out biznews.com for more. Let's just talk about that opening statement of Enoch Garden Guanas: that we've emerged from the fiscal wilderness do you agree? Yeah, always nice talking to you. Just something, Alec. You know, I've listened to everything, I've ran through all the

Speeches and everything I could lay my hands on, but I haven't analyzed the numbers properly. So, they really have to dig into the numbers to really see what the impact is on the South African economy. I've got a broad idea. But, yes, to answer your question, I think we've turned the corner. If you look at the fiscal accounts, for the wrong reasons, just by the way, and I'll get to that just now, but we have turned the corner. What has happened, we have a fiscal primary surplus, which and I actually like a primary surplus, it is.

Still, a deficit, let's be fair about this. But the primary surplus tells you that the Minister of Finance is keeping control over discretionary expenditure. So, that is the benefit of using a primary surplus, which is a good thing. So, it seems to me as if the debt to GDP ratio is stabilized and it's likely to start coming down over the next couple of years or so, which is also a good thing. The same goes for the fiscal deficit, which the primary surplus is likely to keep on going up or put differently the fiscal deficit, then it's likely to get a little.

Bit smaller relative to the size of the economy, which is also a good thing. But why is that? Why is it that the fiscal account seems to be stabilizing? And of course, don't take it away from the Minister of Finance. He's really putting a lot of effort in trying to keep a lit on state expenditure. But the reason, the main reason why the fiscal deficit is coming down is because of a bit of a windfall revenue or tax receipts by the Minister of Finance. So there's an overrun on tax receipts, especially on company taxes.

Very importantly, there's an overrun tax receipt because SARS is being very, very aggressive. So you're reducing the fiscal deficit not by spending less, you're reducing the fiscal deficit by taking more out of the economy. And in the process, you are increasing the revenue or then put differently the tax burden on the economy. And the tax burden today is the highest it's ever been on the South African economy. And keep in mind that the economy is just about not growing. The Minister of Finance reduced his estimates to 1.2%.

2% economic growth. And I think that is far too optimistic. It's probably going to be less than that, which then implies that the tax to GDP ratio is likely to keep on going up a little bit. But let's give credit where it's due. Especially one specific aggregate that we've all been very concerned about has been the debt to GDP ratio. That seemed to have stabilized. And I agree, it has stabilized looking at the numbers so far, and it's likely to start coming down a little bit over the next couple of years.