Cape Talk, Thursday afternoon

losing wards in its traditional heartlands, losing wards in Atteridgeville, in Suane, at risk of losing wards in Soweto and losing control and not just the majority that they would have had five years ago, but losing control in some municipalities that historically would have been completely safe threats for the party. There's municipalities falling in Mpumalanga, in Northwest,

In the Eastern Cape. So all of that, the map, the map of the country, the net, the municipal map, the world map, it's going to look very different to the way it looked three days ago, John. And are the votes that would have gone to the ANC being picked up by one party primarily? I see Action SA is doing well in Gauteng. Are they the big beneficiaries of this loss of bought for the

Pretty much, John. Yeah, that's what's surprising, you know, because when you start to, when you model and plan and look at the results, you have some assumptions in mind, and they're almost always based on historical results. So, looking at 2021, we thought the ActionSA has traditionally done well in VA areas, and the one can't go without the other shrinking. But this time, as you said, ActionSA has been the big beneficiary, cutting deep into

To the ANC share in various areas. So you've had Action SA grow and the DA grow at the same time without any loss to either party. And that's Action SA eating the ANC's lunch. We've seen that in Joburg, we've seen that in Tshwane, we're seeing that in Ikurne. None of the metros other than the Cape Town metro is going to be managed by a single party.

all of the others, except maybe, maybe a tequini, maybe MKP might get fifty percent plus one vote there. But that means seven the is it seven metros? Yeah, it's uh so Buffalo City will be a coalition, Ekurhuleni will be a coalition, Johannesburg, Mangaung, Nezval Mandela Bay and Tshwane will be a coalition. And you are looking into municipalities, not just the metros.

And the, what's it called? The Mapun Gubwe, they reckoned that there was going to be about a 50% municipality coalition rate. Does that look realistic as you look at the figures as they are at the moment? It does, John. I think, you know, if we're talking coalitions just at local municipality level and in the eight metros, you know, you're talking, I think, in the region of 210, 220 municipalities, 20%.