Could ANC abandon DA in coalitions?

There is a shock scenario that could be emerging, and that is a scenario which excludes the DA from the metros in South Africa. So I want to explore what that scenario could look like, because it would involve an ActionSA, ANC, EFF, MK, and other smaller party deal. Then I'll look at the rival scenario to that deal, which is an ANC-DA deal across the country. And for me, I think those are the two.

Most likely scenarios after this election. Action SADA looks like a diminishing prospect. And that is because, as Herman Mashaba said, he's insisting that Helen Zille should step aside. The DA won't allow ActionSA to dictate who their mayoral candidates should be. ActionSA has added another demand that Cilia's brink and Tswine also step aside. The DA won't countenance that. So it looks already like out of the starting blocks, ActionSA and DA, even

Though they could collaborate in the metros across Joburg, they are at loggerheads. And so the only two remaining options are whether the ANC and ActionSA collaborate with other parties or whether the DA and ActionSA go into a nationwide deal. And those two scenarios, I would put at an equal probability right now, unlike many analysts, because you'll see that for the ANC, it's not clear which is the best one for them right now.

Let's have a look at what an ActionSA-led coalition scenario could look like for the ANC. What this would entail is in Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, ActionSA would actually get quite a large share of power. It would probably get the mayor in Joburg and in Tshwane. And then the ANC would get the consolation prize, but nonetheless still get a mayorship in Ekurhuleni.

And underneath that structure, you would then have the EFF, MK Party, maybe some other parties like Rise Mzansi and Joburg joining onto that coalition. Now, Eteguini is a world of its own because it looks like MK and IFP may do their own deal, but Eteguini could be brought into that deal because ActionSA also has a say there. So the ANC or MK could get Eteguini.