On the evening of 2 November, the Trump administration announced that South Africa and Rwanda would lose their eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from 1 January 2027. AGOA is the US trade programme that gives eligible African countries duty-free access to the American market. South African stations carried the news within hours. Coverage peaked the next day, with bulletins on 702, Cape Talk, SAfm, Kaya 959, Power FM and 947.
On air, two framings ran side by side. Analysts and officials stressed the modest headline numbers: about $1.7 billion in AGOA exports last year, roughly 1% of South Africa's global exports. They also pointed out that the exclusion is not a ban on trading with the US. Other voices warned of hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk in the automotive, agricultural, jewellery and manufacturing value chains.
Government messaging centred on market diversification and continued negotiation. At the same time, Pretoria complained that Washington had introduced new demands, and the ANC signalled that land reform and empowerment policy were not up for trade.
A blow that radio tried to size
The news reached listeners as a late-evening bulletin. The Trump administration's decision would see South Africa "lose its preferential duty-free access to the American market from 1st of January 2027", with Rwanda also suspended. 702 framed it as the latest turn in "months of diplomatic friction" over land reform and black economic empowerment1. SAfm reported the reasons Washington gave in its notification to Congress: "barriers to American trade and investment, corruption, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests"2.
From there, coverage on air split into two registers. One treated the exclusion as a manageable trade adjustment. The other treated it as a threat to jobs and communities. Much of the following day's programming was spent trying to reconcile the two.
What is exposed
Stations listed a consistent basket of exposed goods. Cape Talk's bulletin named "vehicles, jewelry, fruits and nuts, beverages, wine, and spirits". It also noted that US pork and poultry exports to South Africa had become "a negotiating tool" in the talks3. Automotive and agriculture recurred most often as the sectors carrying the greatest risk.
The numbers that cut against alarm
A striking feature of the coverage was how often the headline figures were used to play down the impact. A speaker on SAfm said AGOA trade "only represents approximately 1.7 billion dollars last year, and that's a decrease from 4 billion dollars in 2024". The same speaker put this at "only 1% of South Africa's total global exports"4.
On Power FM, a guest argued that "90% of South African exports to the American market did not necessarily rely on AGOA preferences". The guest concluded that "it's not going to have that big of an impact", while conceding that industries like automotive were the exception5. A Cape Talk presenter pressed the point directly. AGOA was credited with creating "tens of thousands of jobs", the presenter said, yet amounted to "1% of our global exports, it's 0.06% of our GDP". The presenter then asked how those figures could be reconciled6.
The jobs figure nobody pinned down
The job estimates heard on air varied by an order of magnitude. Cape Talk's "tens of thousands"6 sat against SAfm's report on comments from DIRCO Deputy Minister Ryan Smith. He said the exclusion "could have been avoided", and the report referred to "hundreds of thousands of South Africans employed through AGOA-dependent industries"7. Power FM had used a similar "hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs" framing before the announcement. No speaker in the corpus offered a sector-by-sector breakdown that would settle the gap.
How much tariffs will actually rise
The tariff arithmetic was similarly contested. The Corder Report pushed back against framing the decision "as a complete ban from the US market". It calculated that an additional most-favoured-nation tariff of around 3.4% would take some products from 12.5% to 15.9%, which would "slightly reduce the competitiveness" of those goods8. On Kaya 959, an analyst identified as Sichabo made the same point: AGOA's loss must be read "on top of the 12.5% tariffs" already in place, adding roughly 3.5%9.
Power FM offered a starker figure. It warned that some exporters "could face tariffs of between 15 and 30%, making it harder to compete"10. On 947, the analyst (rendered there as Sikabo) added historical context. The move "was not entirely unexpected", the analyst said, because South Africa was already under pressure in 2014 "to graduate from the preferential trade agreement and pursue a full trade relationship with the US"11.
Diversification as the official answer
Government's response, as relayed on air, leaned heavily on diversification. Days before the decision, International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola told SAfm that South Africa had spent two years diversifying export markets and that "45% of our exports go to the African continent"12. After the announcement, bulletins reported that Pretoria was fast-tracking opportunities across the African Continental Free Trade Area, India, China, the EU, Canada and the Middle East3.
Business voices were more pragmatic. On SAfm, Chamber CEO Denise Van Histian said firms still exporting to the US would face higher tariffs. She said they would need to find other ways to stay competitive, "such as reducing costs and improving efficiency"13.
Diplomacy and red lines
On reversal, the messaging was mixed. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said South Africa had made "extensive efforts to address Washington's concerns, including offering additional concessions". It complained, however, that "the United States is now raising new issues" outside the negotiation's original scope14. The ANC drew firm boundaries. In a statement carried on Cape Talk, the party said it would not allow economic pressure to dictate foreign policy or force it to abandon land reform, B-BBEE and employment equity, while remaining "open to diplomatic relations with Washington"15.
What remains unresolved
Three questions hang over the story as it left the airwaves on 4 November:
- Jobs. The true number of jobs at risk remains unquantified on air, with estimates ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands. - Tariffs. It is unclear whether the effective tariff increase is closer to 3.4 percentage points or something much steeper. - Reversal. It is unclear whether negotiations can bridge the gap before 1 January 2027, given Pretoria's complaint about shifting demands and the ANC's stated red lines.
The automotive sector, mentioned in almost every bulletin but rarely analysed in depth, is the space to watch.
- 702
- 947
- Cape Talk
- Kaya 959
- Power FM
- SAfm
- The Corder Report
Citations
- 1.
“South Africa has been removed from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, dealing a further blow to already strained relations with the United States. The decision announced by the Trump administration this evening will see South Africa lose its preferential duty-free access to the American market from 1st of January 2027. Rwanda has also been suspended. The move comes after months of diplomatic friction between Washington and Pretoria, with disagreements over South Africa's land reform and black.”
- 2.
“U.S. President Donald Trump has formally notified Congress and South Africa of his intention to remove South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, from January next year. The U.S. cites barriers to American trade and investment, corruption, and threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. Rwanda also faces exclusion following the annual review, Choen Bryce Peace Reports. South Africa now faces losing its AGOA trade preferences from January 1st, 2026.”
- 3.
“Tracking trade and export opportunities across the African continental free trade area, India, China, the EU, Canada, and the Middle East. Of course, this started last year after the U.S. slapped South Africa with tariffs as well. South Africa exports vehicles, jewelry, fruits and nuts, beverages, wine, and spirits under the U.S. AGOA agreement. The U.S. meanwhile exporting products including pork and poultry to South Africa. Now, exporters losing AGOA preferences will reverse.”
- 4.
“Year and AGOA only represents approximately 1.7 billion dollars last year, and that's a decrease from 4 billion dollars in 2024. If one puts that further into perspective, it represents only 1% of South Africa's total global exports. So, while we do regret the decision by the United States to exclude South Africa for 2027 under AGOA, it is not necessary.”
- 5.
“Agreement. But the reality is that AGOA accounts for 1.7 billion goods that have entered into the American market. So that means that 90% of South African exports to the American market did not necessarily rely on AGOA preferences. So even though South Africa will probably lose the preference, it's not going to have that big of an impact. Obviously, industries like the automotive.”
- 6.
“That AGOA has created tens of thousands of jobs in South Africa, but in what it actually means in terms of our global exports, it's 1% of our global exports, it's 0.06% of our GDP. How do we reconcile those figures with a relatively modest overall GDP impact South Africa's preferential access to the US market? Well, I think that it was never more than.”
- 7.
“With its US counterpart after South Africa's exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, AGOA. Celine Marrington has more. South African exporters are expected to face higher costs after losing duty-free access to the US market under the agreement. DAMP for International Relations and Cooperation Ryan Smith says it is something that could have been avoided. Hundreds of thousands of South Africans employed through AGOA-dependent industries will now.”
- 8.
“About the implications. Some people have framed it as a complete ban from the US market. This is not the case. Simply put, South Africa out of AGOA, the country would face an additional most favored nation tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs the current US administration added to various countries. Currently, some South African products enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs. Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, which would slightly reduce the competitiveness of some South African products on the market. Still, one could argue.”
- 9.
“Been the greatest beneficiary of AGOA, under which participating countries get free duty access to the U.S. market in a variety of categories. Sichabo says the loss of AGOA would have to be contextualized around other tariffs in effect against South African exports. Quite simply, this is what it would mean. On top of the 12.5% tariffs that South African products are levied on when they are exported to the U.S., we would then add now the 3.5%.”
- 10.
“Sports and automotive industry, both of which face significant pressure from US trade tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding a AGOA. And the concern, of course, here is without a AGOA, our goods could become more expensive in the US market. So instead of enjoying duty-free access, some exporters could face tariffs of between 15 and 30%, making it harder to compete. And that could ultimately affect the market share of South African businesses and also put jobs at risk.”
- 11.
“From the African Growth and Opportunity Act does not mean that the country will lose access to the United States market as a whole. Sikabo says the move was not entirely unexpected because South Africa was already under pressure back in 2014 to graduate from the preferential trade agreement and pursue a full trade relationship with the US. The US announced yesterday that South Africa will be removed from Agoa effective from January next year. Dimar Gazoloshoro reports. South Africa's Agoa exports were worth about $1.7 billion last year with key industries.”
- 12.
“Of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, known as AGOA. The trade program provides eligible African nations, including South Africa, with preferential access to the U.S. market. Lomola elaborates. In the past two years, since we realize this unpredictability, we have been working very hard to diversify the markets where the South African exports can go to. And as I speak now, 45% of our exports go to the African continent through the Africa Africa.”
- 13.
“Exports, the Chamber's Chief Executive Officer, Denise Van Histian. South Africa's exclusion from AGOA, which is expected to take effect from 1 January 2027, does not mean South African businesses are banned from doing trade with the US. South Africa will still have access but at higher tariffs, thus reducing its competitiveness. Businesses that continue exporting to the US will have to find other ways of improving their competitiveness, such as reducing costs and improving efficiency. Recapping the”
- 14.
“US decision to exclude the country and Rwanda from Agoa. South Africa is said to lose its preferential access to the American market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act from the 1st of January next year. The Department of Trade and Industry says the government will work directly with affected companies to assess the impact and provide appropriate support. It says the country has made extensive efforts to address Washington's concerns, including offering additional concessions through the appropriate channels. But it says the United States is now raising new issues that are not part of”
- 15.
“Policies in exchange for continued preferential access to the US market. The US has withdrawn this country's AGOA trade benefits, and the move takes effect next year. In a statement, the party says it will not allow economic pressure to dictate South Africa's foreign policy or force it to abandon land reform, triple BEE, and employment equity. ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bengu says the party remains open to diplomatic relations with Washington.”