Accountability

On-air predictions, tracked to the outcome

Hosts, analysts and callers make calls on air every day — rate cuts, reshuffles, title races. We extract the falsifiable ones from the broadcast transcript, wait for the horizon, and score them against public sources. Every call keeps its audio receipt.

graded: 169graded
correct: 57%correct
open: 83open
close this week: 3close this week; 30 graded in the last 7 days →

Closing this year1–30 of 33

[Politics]

The Democratic Party will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The event so far

2 predictions from 2 stations

Sun 23 Aug, 06:48Power FMThis one
Patrick Bond
Fri 11 Sep, 06:55702
The Republican Party will lose control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections.
John Mattis

Will it happen?Be the first to call it

[Politics]

Donald Trump’s Republican Party will lose control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections.

Will it happen?Be the first to call it

[Politics]

The Independent Electoral Commission will hold the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections on schedule, without a postponement.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will receive the largest share of the national vote in the 2026 South African local government elections.

The event so far

12 predictions from 4 stations

Wed 19 Aug, 21:19Power FM
The Democratic Alliance will receive about 23% of the vote in South Africa's next local government election.
Nsako Shibambu
Mon 24 Aug, 00:37Power FM
The African National Congress will win below 30% of the vote in the 2026 South African local government elections.
Rayot Khajwayo
Mon 24 Aug, 09:23SAfm
The African National Congress will win the 2026 South African local government elections.
A caller
Wed 2 Sep, 21:30SAfmThis one
2 people called this · 1 yes, 1 no

+6 more

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The coalition currently governing the City of Tshwane will not win an outright majority on the Tshwane council in the 4 November 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

No political party will win an outright majority on the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality council in the 4 November 2026 local government elections, resulting in coalition governance.

The event so far

4 predictions from 2 stations

Tue 22 Sep, 08:49SAfmThis one
Babi Mogwena
Wed 30 Sep, 21:26Power FM
The Democratic Alliance will be the biggest party in Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality after the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.
Werner Pretorius
Wed 30 Sep, 23:39Power FM
The African National Congress will lose control of Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.
Howard Sexton
Sat 10 Oct, 18:04SAfm
The African National Congress will win an outright majority on the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality council in the 4 November 2026 local government elections.
Ramaphosa

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The Democratic Alliance will not win an outright majority on the City of Cape Town council in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

The event so far

4 predictions from 3 stations

Thu 13 Aug, 11:43Cape Talk
Cape Town will have a multi-party council after the 2026 local government elections on 2026-11-04.
Dwayne Jacobs
Wed 16 Sep, 22:54Power FMThis one
3 people called this · 1 yes, 2 no

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

South Africa's proposed coalition-governance bill will not be concluded into law before the 2026 local government elections, by 2026-11-05.

Who called it

2 predictions from 2 stations · 2 yes, 0 no

Sat 29 Aug, 06:55SAfmThis one
A guest
Yes
Fri 9 Oct, 10:40Power FM
William Kise
Yes

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The Democratic Alliance will win more than 50% of the seats on the Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality council in the 4 November 2026 local government elections.

The event so far

3 predictions from 2 stations

Mon 28 Sep, 11:34Power FMThis one
2 people called this · 1 yes, 1 no
Thu 8 Oct, 04:29702
Action SA will not receive more votes than the African National Congress in the Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality in the 4 November 2026 local government elections.
The host

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

No political party will achieve a 50% plus one majority in the City of Johannesburg council in the 2026 local government elections.

The event so far

12 predictions from 4 stations

Fri 14 Aug, 10:16702
No party will win more than 50% plus one of the vote in the city of Johannesburg in the 2026 local government election.
Lukuan Amgoni
Tue 25 Aug, 01:20Power FM
Johannesburg will continue to be governed through a coalition after the 2026 South African local government elections, with no political party winning an outright majority.
A guest
Fri 4 Sep, 09:27702
In the 2026 City of Johannesburg election, Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba will each receive more votes than Bongani Baloyi and Nobuntu.
The host
Thu 10 Sep, 11:19702This one
3 people called this · 3 yes, 0 no

+5 more

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

At least one incumbent South African municipal mayor will not return to office after the 4 November 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The Economic Freedom Fighters will govern Mbombela Local Municipality after the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

The event so far

2 predictions from 2 stations

Wed 23 Sep, 21:33Power FMThis one
A guest
Thu 1 Oct, 08:58SAfm
The African National Congress will retain Mbombela Municipality in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.
Terence

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will receive the most votes in both the Eastern Cape and Limpopo in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

No political party will win an outright majority on the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality council in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The SABC will not procure and deploy the required technology to expand its election broadcasting capability before the 4 November 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will win the eThekwini metropolitan municipality in the 2026 South African local government elections.

Who called it

2 predictions from 2 stations · 2 yes, 0 no

Thu 10 Sep, 16:17Power FMThis one
James Nomalo
Yes
Thu 17 Sep, 16:33702
Cyril Klaba
Yes

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The ANC will fail to win an outright majority in each of the four South African municipalities where ANC candidates appear only on ward ballots and not on proportional-representation ballots in the 4 November 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will retain the Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

Herman Mashaba will be the mayor of the city of Johannesburg by 2027-08-17.

The event so far

2 predictions from 702

Mon 17 Aug, 07:21702This one
Herman Mashaba
Fri 11 Sep, 10:46702
Herman Mashaba will become mayor of Johannesburg following the 4 November 2026 local government elections.
Ayanda Ali

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will win Umshwati Municipality in the 2026 South African local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The Municipal Structures Amendment Bill will not become law before the 4 November 2026 local government elections and therefore will not govern the formation of coalitions immediately after those elections.

Will it happen?Be the first to call it

[Politics]

The Electoral Court will resolve the pending candidate-list challenges for the 2026 South African local government elections before election day on 4 November 2026.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The IEC will grant the African National Congress a second chance to submit candidate lists for the 2026 South African local government elections.

The event so far

2 predictions from SAfm

Thu 3 Sep, 12:35SAfmThis one
A caller
Sat 5 Sep, 06:54SAfm
The Independent Electoral Commission will not reopen its electronic candidate-nomination system to allow the African National Congress to submit additional candidate lists for the 2026 South African local government elections.
A guest

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The South African Communist Party will receive fewer than 1,000 votes in total across South Africa in the 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The South African Communist Party will contest the 2026 South African local government elections under its own banner, separately from the African National Congress.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

Most South African metropolitan municipalities will be hung councils after the 2026 local government elections.

The event so far

2 predictions from 2 stations

Wed 19 Aug, 15:44SAfmThis one
Sandile Eswana
Mon 31 Aug, 01:25Power FM
No political party will win an outright majority in any of South Africa’s eight major metropolitan municipalities in the 2026 local government elections, resulting in coalition governments.
Godfrey Labalo

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

Ditini Kedo says the Democratic Alliance will not win any wards in Khayelitsha in the 2026 local government election.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will win between 75% and 80% of the vote in each of Ngquza Hill and Port St John's municipalities in the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The Democratic Alliance will be the largest party in more municipalities after the 4 November 2026 South African local government elections than it was in the 2021 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public

[Politics]

The African National Congress will win control of all South African metros and all South African municipalities in the 2026 local government elections.

Reader poll opens once the result is public