On-air predictions, tracked to the outcome

The verdict· graded 07 Oct

On 7 October 2026, reports said an anti-migrant group had shut down the Durban Refugee Reception Centre the day before, bringing asylum applications to a standstill.

That means protesters did stop all asylum-application processing, which is the opposite of the claim. The 7 October SABC report shows demands to halt processing, and the Kurrently report says the centre was already shut down and applications were at a standstill.

The verdict· graded 28 Sept

General Fannie Masemola is no longer treated as a criminal suspect, as the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) formally withdrew all Public Finance Management Act (PFMA) charges against him in court on 22 September 2026. However, his position has not yet been restored.

The verdict· graded 28 Sept

AAD 2026 took place between 16 and 18 September 2026 at Air Force Base Waterkloof; SANews said it was expected to attract more than 30,000 trade visitors. No official confirmation of the 100 000 visitor prediction.

The verdict· graded 18 Sept

COSATU postponed its 15th National Congress amid leadership tensions, and the congress was still only taking place in Midrand on 2026-09-15.

The claim required the congress to make a decision on COSATU's voting posture for the 2026 local government elections by 2026-09-17. The evidence instead says the 15th National Congress was postponed, and the later report only shows the congress was taking place on 2026-09-15, not that it had made the stated decision. That means the predicted outcome is not established and the event does not appear to have concluded by the deadline.

The verdict· graded 17 Sept

The IEC certified 136,790 candidates for the 4 November 2026 local government elections on 16 September and said it would publish the final lists that day. (Corrected by the desk: the earlier explanation was an undecided draft.)

The claim was that the final candidate list would contain more than 100,000 candidates. The IEC certified 136,790, well above that, and said the lists would be published the same day. The reports give the certified total rather than quoting the published list itself.

The verdict· graded 12 Sept

By 11 September 2026, the committee had not tabled its report and was still seeking an extension to finish the draft.

The prediction required the report to be submitted by that date, but Parliament said on 11 September 2026 the committee was asking for more time instead. Because the report was not actually submitted, the predicted outcome did not occur, so the claimed majority and dissenting views were never established on the official record.

The verdict· graded 07 Sept

By 2026-09-06, the ANC had not publicly concluded its final mayoral nominee selection and was still dealing with election-list turmoil.

The claim required the selection process to be concluded by the deadline, but the research notes show it was still delayed and unresolved on 2026-09-06. That means the predicted outcome did not occur by the specified date.

The verdict· graded 31 Aug

Hakainde Hichilema’s swearing-in was scheduled for 1 September 2026, not by 31 August 2026.

The claim set a deadline of 2026-08-31, but the research notes say the inauguration was officially set for 2026-09-01. Since it had not gone ahead by the stated date, the prediction was wrong.

The verdict· graded 27 Aug

On 26 August 2026, the National Assembly rejected the EFF motion of no confidence in Speaker Thoko Didiza, with 282 votes against and 101 for.

The claim was that Parliament would vote against the motion, and that is exactly what happened on 2026-08-26. The motion was defeated, so the predicted outcome was realized.